I would consider myself a less-than-stellar flyer. The plane makes a little move, and my heart sinks faster than a bad investment. The worst flight I've ever been on? Seattle to Maui several years ago. It was our first trip to Hawaii, and we took the red-eye thinking we'd catch some Z's. Little did I know that crossing the Pacific was like riding a mechanical bull in a tin can.
It hit out of nowhere. The flight attendants, my usual "how bad is this" gauge, went full-on ninja warrior, sprinting down the aisle with their carts, dodging passengers and projectiles. The plane was rocking, rolling, rumbling – you name it. The pilot casually announced something about 160 mph winds (like it was no big deal), and I frantically introduced our then 13-year-old to Lamaze breathing because I thought he was going to hyperventilate. My husband, bless his heart, was across the aisle trying to achieve zen master status with his eyes closed and fingers in some yogic mudra. Meanwhile, our fearless 5-year-old? Oblivious. iPad in hand, being tossed around like a rag doll while buckled up, completely engrossed in whatever cartoon was playing.
Obviously, we made it to Maui (and the flight back was smooth as butter, thankfully). But that experience? Etched in my memory forever.
I know I'm not alone. If you're a nervous flyer, these last few weeks have been a challenge. With all the news about airline incidents and FAA staffing issues, it's enough to make anyone swear off flying altogether.
Now, I know, I KNOW, flying is statistically still much safer than driving. (I wish I could just fly instead of navigating the Texas freeways, where it's basically Mad Max out there. ) And I'm sure you've all read the statistics about rigorous airline safety protocols. So why do we suddenly feel like the sky is falling?
Enter the availability heuristic, our brain's sneaky little way of making us overestimate the likelihood of events that are easily recalled. Basically, we're bombarded with news about plane problems, so our brains go, "Whoa, planes are dropping like flies!"
Risk Professionals, This is Your Cue!
This isn't just about conquering your fear of flying. The availability heuristic is a cognitive bias that can seriously mess with your risk assessments and decision making in general.
Think about it:
Overestimating Risk: That one time a project failed spectacularly? It might be looming larger in your mind (and your stakeholders' minds) than it should, leading to unnecessary controls and missed opportunities.
Underestimating Risk: Just because you haven't seen a particular risk rear its ugly head lately doesn't mean it's gone extinct. (Remember that volcano you thought was dormant? Yeah, that one.)
Misallocated Resources: Chasing every scary headline can lead to wasted time, effort, and budget on risks that aren't truly significant.
So, what's a savvy risk pro to do?
Know thyself: Recognize that your brain is wired for these biases. (We're only human, after all.)
Challenge assumptions: Dig deeper. Ask "why" five times. Is that control REALLY necessary, or is it just a knee-jerk reaction to a past event?
Seek data: Base your assessments on facts and evidence, not just gut feelings or the latest news cycle.
Educate others: Help your stakeholders understand these biases and make more informed decisions.
By understanding how people really make decisions you can become a more effective risk advisor, guiding your organization towards a balanced and informed approach to risk.
And that is a true value add!
Daniela
PS: Speaking of planes...one thing you probably didn't know about me is that I might be a terrible flyer, but I absolutely LOVE airplanes and airports. I actually pay for an app that allows me to track every airplane worldwide along with all the details. We live in the flight path to DFW, so I often sit outside and track who's flying up above. You send me an itinerary? I'll tell you how old the plane is you'll be flying on, whether you wanted to know that or not. I actually took the photo you see above myself while plane spotting at DFW.
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